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BGonline.org Forums
From my "5pt vs. 3pt" folder...
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: From my "5pt vs. 3pt" folder... (sebalotek)
Date: Monday, 16 January 2017, at 2:45 p.m.
sebalotek wrote:
If for example we have a close decision and knew it was correct to make the 3 point rather than the 5 approximately 25% of the time, then it seems to me that I would be more likely to give some extra amount of consideration and weight to making the 3.
Whereas if for example we knew it was rarely correct to make the 3 point rather than the 5 (say approximately 0.1% of the time), then it seems to me that I would be less likely to choose that move of the two.
I see serious flaws with this line of reasoning.
1. Given your intended application of the information, what you want isn't how often it's correct to make the 3pt vs the 5pt, period but how often it's correct to make the 3pt vs the 5pt in "tough" decisions. It's of no use to know only that (let's pretend) 90% of the time the 5pt is right if you consider all positions, because maybe 99% of those positions are obvious and among the remaining "tough" 1%, 80% of the time the 3pt is right. But what constitutes a "tough" decision is going to vary from one person to another, and there's not going to be any way to arrive at any kind of objective figure.
2. Even if you somehow had the figure, what good would it do you? Say you have done all your intuitive assessments and are still uncertain, so that you now have a "tough" decision, and you know that the 5pt is correct X% of the time for "tough" decisions. How are you going to use this information? The only algorithm that makes sense is to choose the 5pt if X > 50 and to choose the 3pt if X < 50. Whether X = 75 or X = 99.9 therefore makes no practical difference.
More generally, you seem to be looking for a "When in doubt" rule of thumb. "When in doubt, make the 5pt" or "When in doubt, pay later." If you're giving general advice to a lot of players, this kind of guideline can be helpful if you notice that lots of players make errors in the same direction, and need to be pushed in the opposite direction. But for a single player (e.g., myself), this doesn't make sense. The question is not the direction that most people err in, but the direction that I err in. The way to improve is to record the errors that I make, and see which kind of error I make more often (do I make the 5pt when I should make the 3pt more often, or is it the other way around?). Then, when in doubt, make the play that counteracts your known erroneous bias. So if you make the 5pt too often rather than the other way around, then start making the 3pt when in doubt. If you overcorrect, then dial back, and so on.
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