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This RO might help you change your mind.

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 16 January 2017, at 4:49 p.m.

In Response To: Without a QF to help, how many would get this 3rd roll play right? (ah_clem)

This happens 25% of the time. A nicely efficient cube.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB--B-BaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.403% (G:37.435% B:1.262%) 66.629% (G:38.548% B:1.235%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.597% (G:7.529% B:0.388%) 33.371% (G:7.728% B:0.408%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6359 +1.2981
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8044 (-0.1956)±0.0045 (+0.7999..+0.8089)
Double/Take:+1.0276 (+0.0276)±0.0076 (+1.0200..+1.0353)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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