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BGonline.org Forums
From my "5pt vs. 3pt" folder...
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: From my "5pt vs. 3pt" folder... (sebalotek)
Date: Tuesday, 17 January 2017, at 4:18 p.m.
sebalotek wrote:
How many of us have a large sample size of such detailed historical '3 point or 5 point' data extracted, organised and available to analyse and come to a conclusion?
Perhaps not even you with your enviable categorised folders of interesting decisions as, so far, you have not been even able to offer a guesstimate.
My 3pt vs 5pt folder has 36 positions in it. They may not be all exactly what you're looking for, but it's certainly enough for me to detect my own biases and draw conclusions and adjust my play. Indeed, it's because I went through this process that I was able to detect that I was making the 5pt too often and that I needed to value the 3pt a bit more.
Improvement takes work. It's only taken me a few years to amass this data. You've been playing backgammon for much longer than that. How is it a "big problem" with my idea that it takes some effort to accomplish? You want to improve without any effort?
As for a "guesstimate," if you mean an answer to your question, I've already said that I think that it is meaningless. That's why I haven't offered a guesstimate. It's not because I don't have enough data to calculate a meaningless number (36 positions is enough—you don't need 1000); it's that I don't see the point of calculating a meaningless number and reporting it.
So in absence of a personal library of say, 1000 analysed 3 vs 5pt positional decisions (which may take years to collate) it seems to me reasonable and generally stimulating/interesting to ask the community for an interim guesstimate of frequency.
If you are right that nobody has the data to produce an informed answer, then the guesstimate will not only be pointless, but based on no data. What is the point of that?
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