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Rollout Results Posted
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: Blue doubles from roof, Blue fans, Does White redouble? (Paul Weaver)
Date: Thursday, 19 January 2017, at 3:02 p.m.
Blue is on the bar, Blue has a doubling decision, Blue fans, then White has a doubling decision. Does it make any difference what number Blue fans with? This important question was definitively and eloquently answered and settled decades ago by the 1976 Massachusetts Table Tennis Champion Ralph Robinson, "It's worse to fan with double sixes than any other number because you waste more pips." Hard to argue with this kind of logic.
In the first two positions below, Blue is on roll. In the third, White is on shake.
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 132Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 154
score: 0
Blue is Player 2XGID=-a-aBBC-B---aD-a-cacb-a-aB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 60.78% (G:27.43% B:4.35%) 60.82% (G:28.41% B:4.83%) Opponent Winning Chances: 39.22% (G:18.27% B:0.51%) 39.18% (G:18.55% B:0.50%) Cubeless Equities +0.345 +0.717 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.389 (-0.042) ±0.015 (+0.374..+0.405) Double/Take: +0.431 ±0.028 (+0.403..+0.459) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.569) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99.5% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 10 minutes 34 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 132Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 154
score: 0
Blue is Player 2XGID=-a-aBBC-B---aD-a-cacb-a-aB:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 60.90% (G:28.51% B:4.77%) 60.82% (G:28.41% B:4.83%) Opponent Winning Chances: 39.10% (G:18.69% B:0.53%) 39.18% (G:18.55% B:0.50%) Cubeless Equities +0.359 +0.717 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.576 ±0.013 (+0.563..+0.590) Redouble/Take: +0.431 (-0.145) ±0.028 (+0.403..+0.459) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.424) Best Cube action: No redouble / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.3% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 132Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 154
score: 0
Blue is Player 2XGID=-a-aBBC-B---aD-a-cacb-a-aB:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 60.09% (G:41.95% B:0.55%) 60.43% (G:42.50% B:0.49%) Opponent Winning Chances: 39.91% (G:12.71% B:1.11%) 39.57% (G:12.71% B:1.13%) Cubeless Equities +0.488 +1.000 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.689 (-0.002) ±0.003 (+0.686..+0.692) Redouble/Take: +0.691 ±0.005 (+0.686..+0.696) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.309) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 71.1% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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