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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 19 January 2017, at 3:02 p.m.

In Response To: Blue doubles from roof, Blue fans, Does White redouble? (Paul Weaver)

Blue is on the bar, Blue has a doubling decision, Blue fans, then White has a doubling decision. Does it make any difference what number Blue fans with? This important question was definitively and eloquently answered and settled decades ago by the 1976 Massachusetts Table Tennis Champion Ralph Robinson, "It's worse to fan with double sixes than any other number because you waste more pips." Hard to argue with this kind of logic.

In the first two positions below, Blue is on roll. In the third, White is on shake.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-aBBC-B---aD-a-cacb-a-aB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.78% (G:27.43% B:4.35%) 60.82% (G:28.41% B:4.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.22% (G:18.27% B:0.51%) 39.18% (G:18.55% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.345 +0.717
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.389 (-0.042)±0.015 (+0.374..+0.405)
Double/Take:+0.431±0.028 (+0.403..+0.459)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.569)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-aBBC-B---aD-a-cacb-a-aB:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.90% (G:28.51% B:4.77%) 60.82% (G:28.41% B:4.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.10% (G:18.69% B:0.53%) 39.18% (G:18.55% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.359 +0.717
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.576±0.013 (+0.563..+0.590)
Redouble/Take:+0.431 (-0.145)±0.028 (+0.403..+0.459)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.424)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-aBBC-B---aD-a-cacb-a-aB:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.09% (G:41.95% B:0.55%) 60.43% (G:42.50% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.91% (G:12.71% B:1.11%) 39.57% (G:12.71% B:1.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.488 +1.000
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.689 (-0.002)±0.003 (+0.686..+0.692)
Redouble/Take:+0.691±0.005 (+0.686..+0.696)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.309)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:71.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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