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BGonline.org Forums
OT - Poker Hand - I'm a donk
Posted By: Dorn Bishop In Response To: OT - Poker Hand - I'm a donk (Stick)
Date: Friday, 20 January 2017, at 12:02 a.m.
I complete with ATC but then muck to the BB's raise. You say you have 500 at that point; I don't know what the other stack sizes are but I presume you have more than most. If you call, you're left with a 100 in the pot and an effective stack-to-pot ratio of, at most, 5 but in all likelihood something even less than that.
In other words, you're left in No Man's Land where you may have to commit your entire remaining stack either for value, on a naked straight draw, or to isolate an opponent in circumstances where you rate to be a heavy underdog.
This hand is a case in point: you check the flop. So do I but I do it with the intention of mucking to any action behind me, not because of any thought that I'm slow playing with bottom two pair (I don't know why you think you're "almost certain to be ahead" of everyone at that point). In any case, you immediately feel the effect of being out of position in the SB because, if you had position, you could take a stab at the pot if the flop had gotten checked around to you.
But there has been a lot of action behind, making this a no-brainer muck on the flop. If you are not already drawing dead to a set or K8s/K6s, there are so many ways you can lose on the turn or the river: for example, a straight draw or flush draw comes home; an opponent with something like KQ makes two pair or a set; or the board pairs itself counterfeiting your hand.
Instead of mucking, though, you're looking at 225 in the pot and you decide to add another 125 making it 350 to go (100 more for everyone to call). That's crazy. 100 more to call is nothing for anyone on a draw. In fact, anyone with 12-13 combo outs is looking as positive equity and should just re-raise to get everyone's money in. If you're going to raise, you should just go all-in then and there.
Which leads to the next problem you needlessly created for yourself: whether late position's all-in re-raise is based on a set, two bigger pair, or some kind of combo draw.
At this point, you may have the pot odds to call assuming he has you covered. Let's see: It sounds you would be investing about an additional 375 to win about 850, requiring about 30% winning chances to justify a call. Without knowing more about the guy, I would estimate that maybe he has lost his mind with one big pair or total air 5% of the time (making you something like a 90% favorite); that you are drawing dead another 60% of the time; and that he has a big draw the other 35% of the time (he could have/should have just called the 100 more and mucked the turn if his draw did not hit, but maybe all-in is best for fold equity purposes). So that gives you expected winning chances of (5 x 90%) + (60 x 0%) + (35 x 50%), which works out to only about 22%. So, even at that point, you should insta-muck.
But back to my original point: why potentially put yourself in that position by calling a raise out of position pre-flop with 8-6 offsuit? I can't believe that's a positive equity situation. There will be other hands. Stretch your legs. Watch Bloomberg News for a couple minutes. Get a slice of the apple pie; I bet it's good there.
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