[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Early Game Blitz Cube

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 30 January 2017, at 12:10 p.m.

In Response To: Early Game Blitz Cube (Stick)

It was good to see people using the early game reference position they're familiar with. This is also why I posted the problem, you can't have too many early game blitz reference positions in your arsenal. Hopefully the double was obvious to everyone but if not, knowing 41S-55A-F-C (posted below) would lead you to double for sure. It is a borderline ND and in the original position we not only have a better board, the 5pt instead of the 3pt, but also another man in the zone.

To get you wondering about the take/pass decision if you aren't sure of how much to adjust for the better point and extra man in the zone perhaps thinking about another reference position would do the trick. How about 43S-33A-F-C? (also posted below)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBa--BC-B---dD--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.25% (G:34.20% B:1.27%) 66.63% (G:37.38% B:1.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.75% (G:7.49% B:0.34%) 33.37% (G:8.06% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.601 +1.268
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.758 (-0.242)±0.006 (+0.752..+0.764)
Double/Take:+1.000±0.010 (+0.990..+1.010)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.000)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77167024
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:50.3%
Duration: 31 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


41S-55A-F-C
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBaB--C-A---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.74% (G:29.97% B:1.22%) 61.28% (G:31.22% B:1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.26% (G:10.05% B:0.52%) 38.72% (G:10.02% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.421 +0.886
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.574±0.008 (+0.566..+0.582)
Double/Take:+0.558 (-0.015)±0.011 (+0.547..+0.569)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.426)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.3%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1
Double Decision confidence:98.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 05 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


43S-33A-F-C
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.22% (G:27.70% B:1.69%) 67.37% (G:30.49% B:1.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.78% (G:7.06% B:0.31%) 32.63% (G:7.39% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities +0.565 +1.185
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.798 (-0.124)±0.005 (+0.793..+0.804)
Double/Take:+0.922±0.008 (+0.915..+0.930)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.078)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38851904
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 day 10 hours 06 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.