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5a-5a cube action

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Friday, 3 February 2017, at 10:32 p.m.

In Response To: 5a-5a cube action (John O'Hagan)

First, white's takepoint is a little high here, about 24% or 25%. Blue has 8 misses (66, 55, 65, 62, 51). Those misses average 12 pips, so when white gets missed white is on average down 2 pips and on roll for 54% wins on those games, 12% of the games total. Can white win 1/6 after being hit? A quick guess says white will hit 11% of the time immediately from the bar. If a hit from the bar makes white a 2:1 favorite, then white would still have to win 8% of the time after the following sequence: Blue hits white. White does not hit back. White would be behind something like a broken 5 prime in a pretty even race. My best guess--Double/Take. The double looks easy even though blue has more gammons and the gammon value is a lot higher on a 2 cube.

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