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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2017, at 12:13 a.m.

In Response To: Stick's rule strikes again! (Timothy Chow)

I have a pretty sizable collection of 3a7a cube actions saved up but I'm not sure that I have any others that have all the following properties:

1. Pseudocubeless gammon wins are > 30%.

2. D/T equity is less than +0.850.

3. D/T equity is more than 0.100 larger than ND equity.

This position is such a notable exception that it makes me wonder whether XGR is mishandling the subsequent cube action. But so far I've been too lazy to investigate.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBaBBB-AAAc----b-cBbca--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G:31.31% B:0.72%) 74.48% (G:29.23% B:1.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G:6.17% B:0.32%) 25.52% (G:5.53% B:0.40%)
Cubeless Equities +0.751 +1.256
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.716 (-0.125)±0.008 (+0.709..+0.724)
Double/Take:+0.842±0.016 (+0.826..+0.858)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.158)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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