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Lopsided score, hit after bearing off against anchor, cube action?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2017, at 5:09 p.m.

In Response To: Lopsided score, hit after bearing off against anchor, cube action? (Jason Lee)

Closed out on the bar with 11 off is about 77% to win. I don't see how having the checkers on the deuce instead of the ace matters all that much since picking up a second checker seems rather rare from here.

If blue cubes and white takes she'll rewhip immediately.

A back of the envelope calculation of the takepoint is:

Pass -> 9a C -> 5% MWC
Take Lose -> 0% MWC
Take Win -> 5a 2a -> 25% MWC

So white will be risking 5 to gain 20, r/(r+g) = 5/25 = .2

Seems like she's got that, and with no gammons it should be a cube.

OTOH, what are the market losers? Nothing is going to happen to change things for a few rolls, so holding is probably not much of an error if the cube is correct.

I'll say D/T.

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