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Try for the pair?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 20 February 2017, at 6:11 a.m.

In Response To: Try for the pair? (Jason Lee)

It should be clear from the two positions below that picking up the extra checker is basically our #1 goal from the outset.

Without the extra checker: 21.5% (though in bearing off we'll take risks and sometimes still pick it up)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 26
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 57
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCC-----------------a-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 21.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 21.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 78.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.571 -1.146
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.495±0.008 (-0.504..-0.487)
Redouble/Beaver:-2.000 (-1.505)±0.044 (-2.044..-1.956)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.495)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 33.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99553086
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10



With the extra checker: 68.5%!





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 50
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 57
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBBBCCC-------------------:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 68.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 31.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.368 +0.739
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.681±0.010 (+0.670..+0.691)
Redouble/Take:+0.583 (-0.098)±0.016 (+0.567..+0.599)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.319)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99553086
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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