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BGonline.org Forums
Try for the pair?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Try for the pair? (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 20 February 2017, at 6:11 a.m.
It should be clear from the two positions below that picking up the extra checker is basically our #1 goal from the outset.
Without the extra checker: 21.5% (though in bearing off we'll take risks and sometimes still pick it up)
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 26Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 57
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBBBCCC-----------------a-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 21.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 21.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 78.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities -0.571 -1.146 Cubeful Equities No redouble: -0.495 ±0.008 (-0.504..-0.487) Redouble/Beaver: -2.000 (-1.505) ±0.044 (-2.044..-1.956) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+1.495) Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 33.4% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99553086
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 25.8 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With the extra checker: 68.5%!
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 50Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 57
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bBBBCCC-------------------:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 68.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 68.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 31.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.368 +0.739 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.681 ±0.010 (+0.670..+0.691) Redouble/Take: +0.583 (-0.098) ±0.016 (+0.567..+0.599) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.319) Best Cube action: No redouble / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.0% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99553086
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 4.5 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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