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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 1:11 a.m.

In Response To: ATS containment cube (Timothy Chow)

One of the main reasons that I decided to post this one is something that Stick alluded to. All levels of analysis from XG 3-ply to XGR++ take this one. XGR, XG 4-ply, and XGR+ don't even double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 60
7 point match
pip: 112
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB-BBB--A-A----A---Bdagb-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.55% (G:4.54% B:0.12%) 79.53% (G:5.01% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.45% (G:3.20% B:0.05%) 20.47% (G:4.04% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.586 +1.196
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.920 (-0.080)±0.005 (+0.915..+0.925)
Redouble/Take:+1.020 (+0.020)±0.009 (+1.011..+1.029)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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