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Not very volatile

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 3:16 p.m.

In Response To: ATS containment cube (Timothy Chow)

For the containment position Neil's 4 ply RO shows equity after no redouble of .95 and equity after double take of 1.03. For comparison here is a medium length race at that score and cube with a higher equity after double take of 1.05 but only .90 equity after not doubling. This shows the containment position has much less volatility/market loss potential.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 95
7 point match
pip: 83
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---ACDCBB-------bbbdcb----:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 19.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.610 +1.263
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.902 (-0.098)±0.002 (+0.900..+0.904)
Redouble/Take:+1.053 (+0.053)±0.003 (+1.050..+1.056)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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