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Lets see how to apply this over the board

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Tuesday, 28 March 2017, at 4:30 p.m.

In Response To: Adjusting AtO (Stick)

The position below is very close to the one I had against Marty Storer in Cleveland. Marty is on roll and doubles. I know I need 12.5 percent to take if we are equal players. I assume Marty plays 3 PR better than me.

What percent do I need to take, given the 3 PR difference.

Conversely, if I need 12.5 to take and Marty is 3 PR better, at what winning percentage should he double?

Note that accoding to xg, the wins here are roughly 90/10. And of course, if I take I redouble to 8 immediately to be at DMP.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 58
11 point match
pip: 45
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DCCABB--------a---cca-dc-:1:1:1:00:7:3:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 90.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 90.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 9.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.806 +1.655
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.949 (-0.051)
Redouble/Take:+1.238 (+0.238)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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