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RO and close varient

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Friday, 31 March 2017, at 7:12 p.m.

In Response To: RO and close varient (Stick)

I will eat crow here. Stick--You may add one more to the "someone telling me "I did this..." and then when they show me guess what? No, they didn't" category. My memory apparently just isn't that good. I can easily see how a difference this small could come from how well 3-ply and 4-ply play the position from white's side. Also, I almost always use 1 as a seed number. This is not a case of two rollouts where the blue side was very lucky in one set of 1296 rollouts and white was very lucky in the other set. I started this process very confident that I could reproduce the exact same rollout data that I 'remembered'.

Mr. Chow--Keep keeping people honest.

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.91% (G:2.02% B:0.07%) 75.19% (G:2.30% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.09% (G:0.95% B:0.03%) 24.81% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.524 +1.639
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.873 (-0.127)±0.007 (+0.866..+0.880)
Double/Take:+1.009 (+0.009)±0.011 (+0.998..+1.020)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:95.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 124
7 point match
pip: 109
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BbECC---bB--a--eabb---:0:0:1:00:5:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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