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| XGID=-a--CBC-C-b-bC-----bAccaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.41% (G:30.42% B:1.35%) | 69.41% (G:32.05% B:1.52%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.59% (G:8.69% B:0.19%) | 30.59% (G:9.46% B:0.25%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.617 | +1.254 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.824 (-0.176) | ±0.010 (+0.813..+0.834) |
| Double/Take: | +1.039 (+0.039) | ±0.016 (+1.023..+1.055) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 21 minutes 46 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
In your original position (above), the 3 great liabilities of White: 2 homeboard blots, only 3-pt. board, and low inflexible builders let Blue use all rolls for either building another blocking point or attacking the rear blot.
Acc. to XG's dice distribution (4-ply, after D/T), the equity ranges from +.74 (after 42) to +1.86 (after 66). Blue should make the 2, 3 or 7pt. with 15 rolls, hit loose on the ace with 18 rolls, and point on the ace with remaining 3 rolls.
In the Variant A below (White's 3pt. builder covered his ace point):
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| XGID=-a--CBC-C-b-bC-----bAcbab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64,47% (G:25,03% B:1,00%) | 64,76% (G:25,04% B:1,07%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35,53% (G:11,58% B:0,21%) | 35,24% (G:11,40% B:0,23%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,432 | +0,880 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0,619 (-0,017) | ±0,010 (+0,610..+0,629) |
| Double/Take: | +0,636 | ±0,014 (+0,622..+0,650) |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,364) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 97,2% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 6 minutes 46 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
...we can't mindlessly pound on the rear checker due to White's stronger board.
Our avg eq ranges from +.26 (after 32) to +1.52 (after 66). Compared to the original position, we should pass up the loose hit with 7 rolls (65, 41, 21 and 44) - we should run the rear guy or bring/shift builders instead. We should also run with a 33 instead of building, as in the original position (8/2(2)).
In the Variant B below (White's 3pt. spare moved back to the 6pt.):
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| XGID=-a--CBC-C-b-bC-----cAcbaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65,19% (G:21,84% B:0,91%) | 64,93% (G:25,40% B:1,01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34,81% (G:8,79% B:0,16%) | 35,07% (G:10,73% B:0,26%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,442 | +0,905 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0,635 (-0,022) | ±0,012 (+0,624..+0,647) |
| Double/Take: | +0,658 | ±0,015 (+0,642..+0,673) |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,342) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 98,9% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
...contrasting to Variant A, we should generally follow the attacking/building theme from the original position with most rolls, the only difference being 3 rolls: 33 and 65, which both should be played by running the rear guy (instead of building with a 33, or hitting with a 65). Our avg eq ranges from +.36 (after 41) to +1.67 (after 66).
The improved homeboard spares position makes Blue's responses and timing way better, which are a huge factors. If we hit loose on the ace, he'll hit back and make the 4pt board with 9 aces (all except a 61), compared to 5 aces in the original position (11, 12 and 13). If we build, he usually make the 4pt board, just like in the original position, but he mostly doesn't have to break the outfield anchor just yet.