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Giant Position from Cleveland - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 1 April 2017, at 5:26 p.m.

In Response To: Giant Position from Cleveland (Stick)

I normally don't out people and their errors but I don't think there's any real harm. I was playing Marty Storer in Cleveland when he had this position come up in our first game. He thought about it for a few and as I naturally do, so did I when it's not obvious. I concluded rather quickly that I'd play two down from the midpoint. If we're going to be leaving a shot it is best to keep all our builders in front of his blot for the times he doesn't escape and make it much harder for him to escape by keeping the 4 prime intact opposed to a 3 prime.

Well Marty made the ace point which I didn't both rolling out because it was about .070 behind on ++. However in reviewing the match a surprise jumped out, 15, 14 coming off the anchor! Now perhaps if the board hadn't been upside down and it was my play and I was considering it more seriously I would have put this play in my candidates but I can guarantee I wouldn't have made the play OtB. Over the years I've firmly ensconced the idea of not leaving the 20pt anchor unless it is crystal clear crying to be done. This would not have been the case for this problem. When you run off this specific anchor and it's wrong it's normally wrong by a lot and when it's right in this crazy rare scenario, it isn't often a large error.

Turns out, as XG reports, that coming out with both is correct. Many things already mentioned will factor into this play being correct from the opponent's stripped midpoint meaning if he does hit from there he's likely to leave many return shots as some blot(s) to our added outfield coverage against the lone back blot to the solid duplication of small numbers for the opponent.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 121
11 point match
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---aBBDB----bB---bceB-b-A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout120/15 20/14eq: -0.272
Player:
Opponent:		44.43% (G:13.38% B:0.76%)
55.57% (G:21.88% B:1.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.286...-0.259) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.314 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		41.28% (G:11.08% B:0.36%)
58.72% (G:11.32% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.325...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds
3.XG Roller++7/1 6/1eq: -0.354 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		39.69% (G:10.31% B:0.11%)
60.31% (G:11.84% B:0.43%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52960549
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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