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I should have cheated Phil

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 1 April 2017, at 5:42 p.m.

In Response To: I should have cheated Phil (Stick)

So what happened is Phil and I were playing this match, unclocked, and I was trying to figure out if it was too good or not. Phil had misplaced his phone and told me he was going to run back to a restaurant (?) I think it was. Somewhere far away in any case. I knew he'd be gone a few minutes and he left me there, in the middle of a match, to ponder this problem. I thought to myself, what a silly bastard! I could just look this up on my phone while he's gone and nobody would ever be the wiser.

I went through all the numbers and convinced myself it had to be close to a play on. When it's close and assuming there's no chance the opponent will take I prefer to play on. In some of the scenarios where the position goes sour and the opponent ends up having a take next turn they pass knowing I was playing on without looking at the position as a new position. They're happy to 'escape' the game.

Little did I know it's a must double. I didn't realize just how weak some of my fives and fours were. Even when I roll reasonably well Phil could toss something leaving him with a take. OtB I rolled nothing fantastic, I forget the roll , but then doubled automatically as Phil didn't roll anything majestic either. He properly took (it was a double) and crushed my soul not long after. Lesson learned. Next time I check XG when I have 5 minutes, a tough decision, and an MIA opponent.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 112
15 point match
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--CDCB--A-----aaeb-bbB-:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:15:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.80% (G:24.43% B:1.96%) 71.04% (G:25.31% B:2.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.20% (G:9.46% B:0.65%) 28.96% (G:9.46% B:0.74%)
Cubeless Equities +0.579 +1.234
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.824 (-0.176)±0.016 (+0.808..+0.840)
Double/Take:+1.096 (+0.096)±0.022 (+1.073..+1.118)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52960549
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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