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Here's what GNU's "View Statistics" has to say

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 2 April 2017, at 5:29 p.m.

In Response To: XG/GNUBG's 5/4 1/off(3) vs Snowie's 5/4(4) (Jack Mack)

GNU's "View Statistics" feature tells you in what percentage of trials of a (cube decision) rollout each player managed to hit.

The fact that GNU offers this feature only for cube decisions means that it's awkward to use it at gammon save, where the cube is dead. I got around this by changing the score to 4-away/2-away with a centered cube, and using "View Statistics" for each of the scenarios below. The percentages are for a 1296-trial rollout in each case.

1. After 5/1(4), dance, D/T: Blue hits a shot about 34% of the time
2. After 5/1(4), bar/18, D/T: Blue hits a shot about 33% of the time
3. After 5/4 1/off(3), dance, D/T: Blue hits a shot about 29% of the time
4. After 5/4 1/off(3), bar/18, D/T: Blue hits a shot about 28% of the time

Of course this doesn't cover all scenarios but I think we can safely assume that all the entering rolls will exhibit similar behavior to 61 played bar/18.

1296 trials isn't a lot but the percentages are different enough that I don't think the story will change with more trials.

GNU also reports on average how many plies it takes for the hit to materialize. I neglected to record this number but as I recall, it was 7+ plies.

The bottom line is that according to the GNU rollout, 5/4 1/off(3) leads to significantly better long-term safety. It's not enough to just look at what happens over the next two exchanges.

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