This is a subtle decision. I'm not sure how well XG 3-play plays this sort of position. It must play it better than the usual coup classique containment game since many of Blue's checkers are frozen in place, but there are still a lot of tricky containment decisions.
For money, the rollout claims that lots of different plays are tied. XG 3-ply presumably plays correctly after either 6/3 5/3 or 24/21 8/6, so if it does misplay Blue's side after slotting, then the slot should be better than either of those plays (assuming perfect play).
In the ATS rollout, the semi-run comes out well ahead of staying, and it's hard to imagine that better checker play by Blue could reverse the two.
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 8 | | 7 point match | pip: 96
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BB-BCC-A--------A-----dA-:1:1:1:32:2:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 8/6 | eq: -2.312 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:98.04% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.312...-2.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.2 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/19 | eq: -2.329 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.55% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.330...-2.329) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/21 17/15 | eq: -2.330 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.61% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.330...-2.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/21 5/3 | eq: -2.330 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.64% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.331...-2.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/21 4/2 | eq: -2.331 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.68% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.331...-2.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/21 6/4 | eq: -2.331 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.68% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.331...-2.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 8/3 | eq: -2.358 (-0.046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.14% (G:90.11% B:25.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.360...-2.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.2 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 6/3 5/3 | eq: -2.359 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.24% (G:89.99% B:25.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.361...-2.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 8 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 96
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BB-BCC-A--------A-----dA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 | eq: -2.116 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.14% (G:90.09% B:25.95%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.118...-2.115) - [51.8%]
Duration: 10.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 17/12 | eq: -2.117 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.09% (G:90.20% B:25.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.119...-2.115) - [29.5%]
Duration: 7.7 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 17/15 6/3 | eq: -2.118 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.12% (G:90.31% B:25.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.120...-2.116) - [10.8%]
Duration: 7.1 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 6/3 5/3 | eq: -2.118 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.25% (G:89.99% B:25.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.119...-2.116) - [5.1%]
Duration: 2.3 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 17/14 5/3 | eq: -2.118 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.09% (G:90.31% B:25.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.120...-2.116) - [2.8%]
Duration: 9.6 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/21 8/6 | eq: -2.119 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:98.04% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.119...-2.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 17/14 8/6 | eq: -2.120 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.14% (G:90.21% B:26.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.121...-2.118) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.5 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 17/15 8/5 | eq: -2.121 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.17% (G:90.29% B:26.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.123...-2.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5.7 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/4 | eq: -2.123 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.15% (G:90.68% B:25.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-2.126...-2.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.4 seconds |
|
| 10. | Rollout1 | 17/14 6/4 | eq: -2.123 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 1.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.14% (G:90.69% B:25.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.126...-2.121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6.3 seconds |
|
| 11. | Rollout1 | 24/19 | eq: -2.134 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.55% B:13.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.135...-2.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release