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Sax vs KG Checker Play, Cherry Blossom Jackpot, Round 1

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 8 April 2017, at 11:05 a.m.

In Response To: Sax vs KG Checker Play, Cherry Blossom Jackpot, Round 1 (Paul Weaver)

Now that people have commented and had a chance to look and I'm also at a computer I'll make a couple of notes. I have checked this with XG already so if you don't want to know the bot analysis read no further.

The first thing I have to note is that it isn't as simple as "we're ahead in the race" or "we're behind in the race". It is very important how far ahead or behind we are in general. Sure, if it's clear cut that the race is of very little value to us then it will have a big effect or if we're so far ahead we aren't even concerned if our opponent rolls boxes then it will lead us to play a certain way. Many problems though we are in a gray area and we have to somehow weigh what the race is worth to us.

I see this problem and the first two things I notice are the race is close enough. By close enough I mean we have significant racing equity would the position somehow happen to turn into a straight race. We are down 7 pips, not on roll, of a race of slightly over 100 pips in length. This would be the easiest take ever if that happened and the cube would be what was in question. Given that, we can't go randomly leaving blots or shots especially when we combine that with the other major thing of note, the opponent's four point board.

Now a 4pt board by itself is generally enough for me to avoid leaving shots for the most part but combine that here with any play we decide to leave shots with doesn't really improve our position. It maintains a wrecked home board. It may keep from breaking the home board which is worth something but the price is simply too steep with all the factors weighed in.

I am more than happy to bide my time now and see if I can harass my opponent later on when he tries to come off my 6pt or maybe I'll even get lucky and when it turns into a race I'll make a come back. There should be a more opportune moment down that line that will present itself where we may hit/attack our opponent. Yes, we tear up our board a little bit now but we can put Humpty back together again at least to the state it is in now.

Stick

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