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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 8 April 2017, at 7:23 p.m.

In Response To: 2-away/7-away cube action (Timothy Chow)

I wasn't sure White could take this, and Blue's gammon losses are low, so I doubled. However, the rollout indicates a much easier take than I expected.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 131
7 point match
pip: 68
score: 5

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BcCCBBAB-a----a---bbabba-:0:0:1:00:5:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.47% (G:26.60% B:3.63%) 77.40% (G:34.60% B:3.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.53% (G:1.15% B:0.03%) 22.60% (G:1.28% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +1.015 +1.609
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.938±0.008 (+0.930..+0.946)
Double/Take:+0.899 (-0.039)±0.015 (+0.884..+0.913)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.062)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 27.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 53 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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