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It was KenB who asked

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 9 April 2017, at 7:22 p.m.

In Response To: Somebody was asking when XGR++ differs from a rollout (Timothy Chow)

He asked here.

This position is an example of what I meant when I said "volatile cube decisions, particularly at some funny score."





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 154
7 point match
pip: 131
score: 4

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aaABaBE-----bC--ac-c-AbAa-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.84% (G:49.30% B:9.14%) 74.67% (G:51.25% B:13.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.16% (G:5.63% B:0.34%) 25.33% (G:5.79% B:0.75%)
Cubeless Equities +1.057 +1.556
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.954±0.007 (+0.946..+0.961)
Double/Take:+0.946 (-0.008)±0.013 (+0.933..+0.959)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.046)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.7%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:84.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

XGR++:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 154
7 point match
pip: 131
score: 4

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aaABaBE-----bC--ac-c-AbAa-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.55% (G:48.07% B:6.55%) 75.59% (G:48.38% B:6.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.45% (G:5.42% B:0.26%) 24.41% (G:5.42% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +1.026 +1.579
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.966 (-0.034)
Double/Take:+1.039 (+0.039)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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