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2a-5a Cube

Posted By: scotty
Date: Monday, 10 April 2017, at 8:36 a.m.

In Response To: 2a-5a Cube (Dmitriy Obukhov)

I will take a stab at this one, and hope that I don't overlook pertinent details.

Blue has 15 shots that hit on his next roll. White has enough wins to take the cube. If white takes, she will immediately redouble.

Can blue offer the cube? If blue cubes and wins he wins the match for MWC of 100%. If blue doesn't cube and wins he has MWC of 84.2%. So blue stands to gain about 15.8% in MWC by cubing, if he wins.

If blue, doesn't cube and loses, he will be leading 2a4a for MWC of about 65 to 70% (I can't remember accurate MWC die 2a4a). If blue cubes and loses he will be at 2a1aCrawford with MWC of about 33.2%, for a loss of 30+% in MWC. Blue definitely needs more than 60% winning chances to cube here, and just doesn't have enough wins to offer the cube.

no double/take and redouble.

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