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2a-5a Cube

Posted By: scotty
Date: Monday, 10 April 2017, at 9:32 a.m.

In Response To: 2a-5a Cube (Dmitriy Obukhov)

At this score, the potential gain in MWC is greater than the potential loss in MWC, allowing the leader to cube with GWC < 50%. At 2a5a, the potential loss in MWC is more than twice the potential gain, thus the leader needs more than 66% GWC to offer the cube. (I haven't done a precise calculation)

To be more precise;, when an offered cube leads to a dead cube situation, AND there are no gammons on the table, the cube can be offered when :

GWC > risk/(risk + gain)

where risk = MWC(no cube and lose) - MWC(cube and lose)

and where gain = MWC(cube and win) - MWC(no cube and win)'s

I am interested in learning about any exceptions to, or errors in the above statements. Corrections gratefully accepted.

BTW, Dmitriy, did you intend to place blue's checkers on the 3 point? The example given looks like a strong no double to me. Or am I missing an essential point here?

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