[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

2a-5a Cube

Posted By: scotty
Date: Monday, 10 April 2017, at 10:42 a.m.

In Response To: 2a-5a Cube (Dmitriy Obukhov)

"Blue doesn't have to take a redouble if he misses."

Thanks! I am gaining experience in this area of the game.

Now I have the MET and calculator in front of me.

Firstly, Blue does have some race equity here, and white has a few gammons on the board. I will assume (perhaps incorrectly) that they will offset each other.

Blue's Risk If blue doesn't double, and loses, he will be at 2a4aCrawford with MWC=66.9% If blue doubles, misses, and drops the ensuing redouble, blue will be leading 2a3a with MWC=59.9%. Blue's risk=7% MWC Blue's Gain if blue doesn't double, and wins, he will be at 1a5a with MWC=84.2% If blue doubles and wins, he wins the match with MWC=100%. Blue's gain =15.8 MWC.

Blue needs 7/(7+15.8)=30.7 gwc to offer the cube, and has 30.56% based on hit/miss win or lose.

This is a close one, and I'll assume that QF has a role to play here, and that Blue's race equity swings the balance to Double/Take.

Thanks for posting this position. It has been a great learning experience.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.