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Rollout and Variant

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Tuesday, 11 April 2017, at 2:12 a.m.

In Response To: 2a-5a Cube (Dmitriy Obukhov)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 61
5 point match
pip: 85
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BCBCBA--a----B---bacccb-:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 48.53% (G:2.01% B:0.07%) 49.26% (G:2.25% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.47% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) 50.74% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.004 +0.463
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.124±0.002 (-0.125..-0.122)
Double/Take:-0.167 (-0.043)±0.005 (-0.172..-0.162)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.124)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 4362399
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 61
5 point match
pip: 91
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBCBA-Aa----B---bacccb-:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 46.49% (G:2.34% B:0.08%) 47.25% (G:3.25% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 53.51% (G:0.52% B:0.01%) 52.75% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities -0.032 +0.366
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.150 (-0.001)±0.002 (-0.152..-0.148)
Double/Take:-0.149±0.005 (-0.154..-0.144)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.149)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 4362399
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:66.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 47.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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