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***Rollout and Variants***

Posted By: Mike Clapsadle
Date: Tuesday, 11 April 2017, at 11:14 p.m.

In Response To: Gappy prime containment cube (Mike Clapsadle)

Original Position: D/T





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 90
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBC-BBB--B-B---babbd-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.57% (G:4.82% B:0.15%) 72.84% (G:5.00% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.43% (G:4.63% B:0.08%) 27.16% (G:4.60% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.454 +0.923
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.758 (-0.034)±0.010 (+0.748..+0.768)
Double/Take:+0.792±0.011 (+0.781..+0.803)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.208)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Blue owns 10 point: D/T, but it's close. XG++ actually had this as a close ND/T





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 90
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBC-BBB-B--B---babbd-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.43% (G:4.20% B:0.14%) 70.89% (G:4.37% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.57% (G:4.23% B:0.06%) 29.11% (G:4.28% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.409 +0.839
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.681 (-0.008)±0.009 (+0.672..+0.690)
Double/Take:+0.688±0.011 (+0.677..+0.700)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.312)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:84.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Blue owns 12 point: ND/T





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 90
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBC-BBB---BB---babbd-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.35% (G:4.31% B:0.13%) 68.60% (G:4.42% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.65% (G:5.12% B:0.10%) 31.40% (G:5.75% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.359 +0.718
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.606±0.010 (+0.596..+0.616)
Double/Take:+0.562 (-0.044)±0.012 (+0.551..+0.574)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.394)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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