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How do you figure these out ? Rollout(s)

Posted By: Colin Owen
Date: Sunday, 16 April 2017, at 8:33 p.m.

In Response To: How do you figure these out ? (Stick)

Here's a rollout for this position:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 63 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 169 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aA-BCB------A--AA-aBddBe-:1:1:1:15:0:0:2:0:10
Blue to play 15

1.	Rollout1	20/15 20/19*	eq: +1.0137
	Player: Opponent: 76.56% (G:25.78% B:1.07%) 23.44% (G:12.54% B:0.43%) Conf.: ±0.0050 (+1.0086...+1.0187) - [82.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 30 seconds
2.	Rollout1	20/19* 19/14	eq: +1.0102 (-0.0035)
	Player: Opponent: 76.46% (G:25.76% B:1.04%) 23.54% (G:12.58% B:0.41%) Conf.: ±0.0051 (+1.0051...+1.0153) - [17.1%] Duration: 30 minutes 59 seconds
3.	Rollout1	20/19* 17/12	eq: +1.0058 (-0.0078)
	Player: Opponent: 76.72% (G:26.28% B:1.07%) 23.28% (G:12.59% B:0.45%) Conf.: ±0.0050 (+1.0008...+1.0109) - [0.9%] Duration: 26 minutes 14 seconds
4.	Rollout2	20/19* 16/11	eq: +0.9826 (-0.0311)
	Player: Opponent: 76.28% (G:26.07% B:1.29%) 23.72% (G:12.97% B:0.45%) Conf.: ±0.0165 (+0.9661...+0.9990) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
5.	Rollout2	20/19* 13/8	eq: +0.9356 (-0.0781)
	Player: Opponent: 74.57% (G:25.41% B:1.08%) 25.43% (G:14.27% B:0.42%) Conf.: ±0.0179 (+0.9177...+0.9535) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 37 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1824371 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1824371 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

XG made it a small recube (and easy take) btw, but a rollout showed this:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 63 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 169 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aA-BCB------A--AA-aBddBe-:1:1:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.690% (G:20.191% B:0.769%)	73.850% (G:21.552% B:0.843%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.310% (G:14.642% B:0.269%)	26.150% (G:13.826% B:0.201%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5143	+1.1213
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.8313 (-0.1687)	±0.0016 (+0.8297..+0.8330)
Redouble/Take:	+1.0181 (+0.0181)	±0.0029 (+1.0153..+1.0210)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
93312 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1824371 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 37 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Thought I'd let it run overnight. (Had a good sleep!) A take seems to be only a small error therefore, and the taker does have the easier plays. With RD/T the 51 roll gives:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 63 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 169 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aA-BCB------A--AA-aBddBe-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:2:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.	Rollout1	20/19* 17/12	eq: +0.7076
	Player: Opponent: 78.76% (G:28.08% B:1.20%) 21.24% (G:11.20% B:0.29%) Conf.: ±0.0064 (+0.7012...+0.7140) - [100.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	20/15 20/19*	eq: +0.6912 (-0.0164)
	Player: Opponent: 78.43% (G:27.69% B:1.20%) 21.57% (G:11.52% B:0.32%) Conf.: ±0.0062 (+0.6850...+0.6973) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 43 seconds
3.	Rollout1	20/19* 19/14	eq: +0.6898 (-0.0179)
	Player: Opponent: 78.33% (G:27.53% B:1.20%) 21.67% (G:11.38% B:0.31%) Conf.: ±0.0069 (+0.6829...+0.6966) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 34 seconds
4.	Rollout2	20/19* 16/11	eq: +0.6626 (-0.0450)
	Player: Opponent: 77.74% (G:27.35% B:1.22%) 22.26% (G:12.22% B:0.31%) Conf.: ±0.0129 (+0.6497...+0.6755) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds
5.	Rollout3	20/19* 13/8	eq: +0.5936 (-0.1140)
	Player: Opponent: 75.67% (G:25.80% B:1.13%) 24.33% (G:13.47% B:0.22%) Conf.: ±0.0259 (+0.5676...+0.6195) - [0.0%] Duration: 56.7 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1824371 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1824371 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1824371 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I think Keene and I must have subconsciously factored in for the only sensible cube position!

Messages In This Thread

• How do you figure these out ?
  Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Friday, 14 April 2017, at 11:13 a.m.
  • How do you figure these out ?
    Colin Owen -- Friday, 14 April 2017, at 11:38 a.m.
    • How do you figure these out ?
      Keene -- Friday, 14 April 2017, at 9:17 p.m.
  • How do you figure these out ?
    Stick -- Sunday, 16 April 2017, at 4:14 a.m.
    • How do you figure these out ? Rollout(s)
      Colin Owen -- Sunday, 16 April 2017, at 8:33 p.m.
  • How do you figure these out ?
    Albert Steg -- Monday, 17 April 2017, at 12:27 p.m.
    • How do you figure these out ?
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 17 April 2017, at 11:31 p.m.