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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 20 April 2017, at 11:48 p.m.

In Response To: 4a3a cube with 11 checkers in the zone but inferior structure (Timothy Chow)

There are gammons in the air but Blue doesn't win often enough to have enough market losers to double.





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 171
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab-B--E-C--AdB-A-b-bbb-A--:0:0:1:00:3:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.47% (G:18.80% B:4.08%) 52.74% (G:18.28% B:5.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.53% (G:11.88% B:1.27%) 47.26% (G:12.01% B:1.59%)
Cubeless Equities +0.111 +0.464
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.336±0.019 (+0.316..+0.355)
Double/Take:+0.159 (-0.176)±0.025 (+0.135..+0.184)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.664)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 53 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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