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Bear off win percentage math

Posted By: vsn
Date: Friday, 21 April 2017, at 8:57 p.m.

I'm trying to calculate the win percentage in this position. My result doesn't match XG. Perhaps my math is wrong?

On 31, 32, and 21, black will cash: 6/36 * 1 = .1666

On 44+, white wins: 3/36 * 0 = 0

On the other 27 rolls, black needs to roll any set to win: 27/36 * 6/36 = .1249

Total: .1666 + .1249 = .2915

According to XG, it should be .2685. Where did the other 2% go?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 4
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 7
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-C--A-------------------d-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 73.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 26.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.463 +0.926
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.417 (-0.417)
Double/Take:+0.833
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.167)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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