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BGonline.org Forums
Bear off win percentage math
Posted By: vsn
Date: Friday, 21 April 2017, at 8:57 p.m.
I'm trying to calculate the win percentage in this position. My result doesn't match XG. Perhaps my math is wrong?
On 31, 32, and 21, black will cash: 6/36 * 1 = .1666
On 44+, white wins: 3/36 * 0 = 0
On the other 27 rolls, black needs to roll any set to win: 27/36 * 6/36 = .1249
Total: .1666 + .1249 = .2915
According to XG, it should be .2685. Where did the other 2% go?
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 4Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 7
score: 0
is Player 1
XGID=-C--A-------------------d-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 73.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 73.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 26.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 26.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.463 +0.926 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.417 (-0.417) Double/Take: +0.833 Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.167) Best Cube action: Double / Take eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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