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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout
Posted By: Stick In Response To: 41S-43X-42? (Stick)
Date: Friday, 27 October 2006, at 10:22 a.m.
After bar/23* it's more solid to consolidate your advantage. You just grabbed a 20 pip lead in the race and made another useful point by playing 13/9. If you hit with 8/4 you semi-strip your position [just look at it, it's fugly], you risk losing your advantage if your opponent hits back, and you have made no other useful points. Making the 9 should be clear here.
160 164 Board image courtesy of GO-Figure
# Ply Move Equity 1 R bar/23* 13/9 0.280 0.8% 16.0% 56.9% 43.1% 9.7% 0.4% 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.206 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 145055 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. 2 R bar/23* 8/4* 0.224 (-0.056) 1.1% 18.5% 54.6% 45.4% 11.5% 0.6% 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.167 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 129735 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
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