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Why must you hit?

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Sunday, 30 April 2017, at 8:28 p.m.

Please see below two position in which I found myself bottled behind a primes. I played them both wrong.

XG++ says I should have hit. Will greatly appreciate learning why.





White is Corvin45

score: 3
pip: 124
7 point match
pip: 133
score: 4

Blue is leobueno
XGID=--a-aBDCB--A-B--bbbbbb-a-A:1:1:1:33:4:3:0:7:10
Blue to play 33

1.xgXG Roller++Bar/22 7/4* 6/3(2)eq: -0.017
Player:
Opponent:
52.82% (G:17.36% B:1.31%)
47.18% (G:16.90% B:0.72%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/10 7/4*(2) eq: -0.059 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
51.01% (G:19.29% B:1.51%)
48.99% (G:17.13% B:2.27%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 11/8 7/4*(2) eq: -0.075 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
48.76% (G:17.26% B:1.31%)
51.24% (G:14.87% B:0.53%)
4.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 13/10(2) 11/8eq: -0.110 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
46.78% (G:12.27% B:0.74%)
53.22% (G:13.58% B:0.38%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/22 7/4*(3) eq: -0.126 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
45.59% (G:16.95% B:1.36%)
54.41% (G:13.54% B:0.62%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Corvin45

score: 3
pip: 115
7 point match
pip: 121
score: 4

Blue is leobueno
XGID=--a-aBDCC-B-----b-bbcbAb--:1:1:1:21:4:3:0:7:10
Blue to play 21

1.xgXG Roller++6/5 6/4* eq: -0.122
Player:
Opponent:
53.51% (G:12.86% B:0.62%)
46.49% (G:23.41% B:0.51%)
2.XG Roller++7/4* eq: -0.139 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
52.59% (G:12.94% B:0.65%)
47.41% (G:22.97% B:0.51%)
3.XG Roller++6/4* 4/3eq: -0.163 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
51.89% (G:13.00% B:0.64%)
48.11% (G:23.31% B:0.49%)
4.XG Roller++8/7 6/4* eq: -0.183 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
51.70% (G:12.49% B:0.61%)
48.30% (G:24.11% B:0.52%)
5.playedXG Roller++8/5eq: -0.205 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
45.93% (G:11.85% B:0.79%)
54.07% (G:17.45% B:0.30%)
6.XG Roller++7/5 6/5eq: -0.219 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
45.57% (G:11.45% B:0.74%)
54.43% (G:17.64% B:0.28%)
7.XG Roller++8/6 7/6eq: -0.395 (-0.273)
Player:
Opponent:
39.90% (G:9.59% B:0.61%)
60.10% (G:19.35% B:0.41%)
8.XG Roller++10/9 6/4* eq: -0.453 (-0.331)
Player:
Opponent:
47.72% (G:11.84% B:0.61%)
52.28% (G:33.45% B:3.71%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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