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Short race evaluation?

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 1 May 2017, at 12:03 a.m.

In Response To: Short race evaluation? (Karol Szczerek)

Here's my ref. pos. that I rolled out 500 times 35+ years ago to help my race understanding. Hmmm one second to roll it out 10 times as long with my laptop vs a long evening decades ago by hand!





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 24
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 7
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-G-----------------baaa---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.805% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 74.772% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.195% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 25.228% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4961 +0.9909
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7025 (-0.2198)±0.0007 (+0.7017..+0.7032)
Double/Take:+0.9223±0.0007 (+0.9215..+0.9230)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0777)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1.0 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

So I know this is a bit less than 75% and the OP pos, is clearly worse than that for the leader and pips mean lots in very short races so I'd guess about 70%.

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