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Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT"

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 2 May 2017, at 6:42 a.m.

In Response To: Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT" (Karol Szczerek)

Here's a method that works well (at least in this position). Matussek's EPC formula gives White/Blue EPC's of 27.6/28.6. XG says they're actually 28.4/28.7 but we wouldn't know that OTB. Using Matussek's numbers, we would think that White is only ahead by 1 pip. So evaluate a 21-22 race rather than an 18-22 one. Trice says the trailer's point of last take is when trailing by 2 pips so R/T since White's lead is within 1 pip of the POLT.

White has close to a flat position while Blue has a pips position, so I don't think any other adjustments need to be made for the position type.

Matussek: http://www.bkgm.com/articles/Matussek/BearoffGWC.pdf

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