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Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT"

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 2 May 2017, at 2:26 p.m.

In Response To: Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT" (Karol Szczerek)

"If you take Matussek's EPCs, it gives an even count of 28.6 for both sides (John, you've missed 1 pip for White), which gives 70.5%."

I think 27.6 is correct. Did you remember to subtract 1 from White's total for having 4 points covered, one of which is the ace point?

You can also use Trice to arrive at a winning percentage estimate. 21 (on roll) vs. 17 would give 21 ~ 50% chances while 21-23 would probably be ~77% in a late bearoff like this. Therefore each pip in this range would be worth about 4.5% so 21-22 should be in the 72.5% range.

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