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Rollout (no respondent picked the bot play)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 8 May 2017, at 11:30 p.m.

In Response To: Can't safety all the blots, so which one(s)? (Timothy Chow)

I'm still having trouble understanding why the bot thinks 10/7 is so bad.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 133 Unlimited Game pip: 102 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABBCBA--A-cB-aAc-cbb----:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	7/2	eq: +0.389
	Player: Opponent: 66.18% (G:26.35% B:0.41%) 33.82% (G:6.22% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.382...+0.397) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	16/13 7/5	eq: +0.338 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 66.50% (G:19.67% B:0.25%) 33.50% (G:5.82% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.331...+0.345) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
3.	Rollout1	16/14 10/7	eq: +0.309 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 65.47% (G:22.25% B:0.43%) 34.53% (G:9.68% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.300...+0.317) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

---

This is not really a "fair" variant in the sense that now Blue can both make the bar point and leave only a single direct shot, but I post it to illustrate that 15/13 5/2 is tied with 15/13 10/7.

Certainly the five-point board has value, but the bot doesn't think much of 16/14 5/2 in the original position.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 134 Unlimited Game pip: 101 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABBCBA--A-cBaA-c-cbb----:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	15/13 10/7	eq: +0.569
	Player: Opponent: 74.11% (G:22.83% B:0.32%) 25.89% (G:4.69% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.562...+0.576) - [65.4%] Duration: 9 minutes 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/13 5/2	eq: +0.567 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 74.54% (G:20.92% B:0.17%) 25.46% (G:3.17% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.560...+0.574) - [34.6%] Duration: 9 minutes 18 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/2	eq: +0.488 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 69.35% (G:27.50% B:0.34%) 30.65% (G:5.70% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.480...+0.495) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 09 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Can't safety all the blots, so which one(s)?
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 7 May 2017, at 10:59 p.m.
  • Can't safety all the blots, so which one(s)?
    Keene -- Monday, 8 May 2017, at 4:15 a.m.
  • Can't safety all the blots, so which one(s)?
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 8 May 2017, at 5:09 a.m.
    • Can't safety all the blots, so which one(s)?
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 May 2017, at 11:04 p.m.
  • Can't safety all the blots, so which one(s)?
    ah_clem -- Monday, 8 May 2017, at 7:27 p.m.
  • Can't safety all the blots, so which one(s)?
    Sean Garber -- Monday, 8 May 2017, at 7:55 p.m.
  • Rollout (no respondent picked the bot play)
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 May 2017, at 11:30 p.m.
    • Rollout (no respondent picked the bot play)
      Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 9 May 2017, at 3:23 a.m.