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A question about XG rollouts?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 11 May 2017, at 1:16 a.m.

In Response To: A question about XG rollouts? (scotty)

The short answer is that it doesn't mean much, and I don't really pay attention to that number myself.

The somewhat longer answer is that it means that if you extend the rollout (to, say, 2592 games instead of the 1296 games of my rollout) then it's highly unlikely that XG will alter its verdict about whether or not this position is a double. So for instance, here XG says, "Best Cube action: Double/Pass" so it thinks it's a double. If you extend the rollout, or do another 1296-trial rollout with a different seed, chances are very high that at the end, XG will again say that the best cube action is to double.

If you really want to know precisely how XG calculates that number, then we'd have to get into technicalities about the normal (a.k.a. Gaussian) distribution, which I suspect is more detail than you care to hear, but I could explain it if you really want to hear all the gory details.

The reason I don't pay any attention to this confidence number is that the more informative number is the "±0.016" that comes at the end of the line labeled "Double/Take." This gives you a better sense of how much statistical uncertainty there is in the rollout than the confidence percentage does.

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