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Rollout ATS and for money

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 2 June 2017, at 11:53 p.m.

In Response To: Fifteen against one again (Timothy Chow)

Looks like no respondent chose the bot play this time, which is D/T. Resurrect White's borne-off checker to her 5pt and the bot verdict is D/P.

Containment play is not XG's forte, but I think that means that, if anything, Blue's position may be a tad stronger than the rollout indicates.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 59
Unlimited Game
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aBB-BBC-----AB-----Ab-deb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.04% (G:1.96% B:0.02%) 22.91% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.519 +1.042
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.870 (-0.031)±0.006 (+0.865..+0.876)
Redouble/Take:+0.902±0.008 (+0.893..+0.910)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.098)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 64
Unlimited Game
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aBB-BBC-----AB-----Ac-deb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.34% (G:2.31% B:0.05%) 79.63% (G:2.05% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.66% (G:1.49% B:0.01%) 20.37% (G:1.59% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.595 +1.195
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.897 (-0.103)±0.003 (+0.894..+0.901)
Redouble/Take:+1.072 (+0.072)±0.008 (+1.065..+1.080)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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