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Testing Your Chouette Action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 14 June 2017, at 5:04 a.m.

In Response To: Testing Your Chouette Action (Stick)

It seems that nobody gave any mathematical response to Stick's question. As I said, I don't think that the decision is a purely mathematical one, but maybe it's worth saying something about the math.

For simplicity, let's make the assumption that if the box drops Stick's double, then the box's equity is –1. That is, the box's equity after the drop is zero–we're assuming that the position is essentially level and the players have essentially the same skill level.

If there are (say) four players on the team along with Stick, then that means that for the box's drop to be "correct," Stick's equity for a single head-to-head money game against the player in the box has to be at least +0.2. In fact it has to be more than this, for at least two reasons:

1. The players are going to be on their own when it comes to cube decisions, since they can't consult Stick.

2. The box owns the cube against Stick, which gives the box a bit of extra equity.

Anyway, if we adopt the usual 100 Elo = 3 PR conversion, then according to the usual formulas, a 4 PR advantage translates into being about a 54-to-46 favorite at DMP. I'm not sure how to adjust this for money, but +0.2 seems a bit high.

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