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Novi Lecture Help

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 28 June 2017, at 7:15 p.m.

In Response To: Novi Lecture Help (Phil Simborg)

"How did you determine if you had enough market losers to double, other than just guessing from experience or doubling when you think it is getting close to a pass?"

Reference positions.

"Robertie's Law would be fairly easy to apply in a race, since it is pretty simple to come up with a little better or worse than average roll,"

There are much better things to do such as just knowing what win % is needed to double at a certain length race.

"So I am looking for a little historical information that would help me better explain the importance and impact of O'Hagan's discovery"

I am not saying it can not be useful but I do not share your enthusiasm for it and in particular I have the following issues with it.

i) It ignores that the size as well as the number of market losers is important. ii) "doing o.k. on the rest of your numbers" is very vague.

If you want to show the importance of it maybe a demonstration on randomly given positions where one compares the performance of John deciding to double using his rule to performance of a giant who does not use the rule.

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