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Strengthening the Slot

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 28 June 2017, at 7:23 p.m.

In Response To: Similar Variant (where David's move is best) (David Levy)

When creating variants, I adhere as much as possible to the "single change" guideline:

...(a) shifting a checker(s) from one point to another (almost always), OR occasionally b, c or d.
...(b) swapping a blue and white point, or
...(c) changing cube position, or
...(d) changing match score / money.

In general, the strong candidate plays in the original position are still legal or at thematically similar (which once in a while dovetails better with a different roll).

The two diagrams below are viewable SIDE BY SIDE, if your window is wide.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 86
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBCBBA--Ab-----Bbaaaeb-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1 (from original, White is adjusted 4/1, plus it's money)


1.Rollout18/2eq: +1.094
Player:
Opponent:		90.68% (G:30.63% B:2.38%)
9.32% (G:2.18% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.091...+1.097) - [95.4%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout111/6 5/4eq: +1.091 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		89.85% (G:31.84% B:2.56%)
10.15% (G:1.92% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.088...+1.093) - [4.6%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout218/13 5/4eq: +1.058 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		90.04% (G:29.14% B:2.63%)
9.96% (G:3.33% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.052...+1.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.3 seconds
4.Rollout218/13 11/10eq: +1.053 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		90.06% (G:28.62% B:2.57%)
9.94% (G:3.15% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.048...+1.058) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52.8 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 86
5 point match
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBCBBA--Ab-----Bbaaaeb-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:5:10

Variant 2 (from original, White is adjusted 4/1)


1.Rollout111/6 5/4eq: +1.186
Player:
Opponent:		89.53% (G:32.64% B:2.66%)
10.47% (G:2.14% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.182...+1.189) - [84.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout18/2eq: +1.183 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		90.28% (G:31.22% B:2.45%)
9.72% (G:2.31% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.180...+1.187) - [15.5%]
Duration: 5 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout218/13 5/4eq: +1.143 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		89.85% (G:29.40% B:2.80%)
10.15% (G:3.39% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.137...+1.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.8 seconds
4.Rollout218/13 11/10eq: +1.142 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		89.86% (G:29.30% B:2.74%)
10.14% (G:3.31% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.137...+1.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.3 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In both variants above, compared to David's original position, a checker has been moved from White's 4pt to her 1pt. In the first (left-hand) position, however, the match score has also been changed to money (instead of –5–5). The closest I was able to come with just a checker change is in the second (right-hand) position, where 8/2 is a .002 error.

In Variant 3 below (compared to the original position), Blue has his 3pt instead of 2pt. Because the number of consecutive points has shrunk from five to four, this is blunter than my typical change, but you may find the size of the swing instructive. While Blue slotting his 2pt is a close decision (in the original or variant 1 or variant 2), not slotting his open 3pt is a whopper.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 89
5 point match
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-BCBBA--Ab-----Bbabaea-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:5:10

Variant 3


1.Rollout18/3 5/4eq: +1.014
Player:
Opponent:		85.12% (G:29.59% B:2.22%)
14.88% (G:4.31% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.010...+1.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout111/10 8/3eq: +0.987 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		84.78% (G:28.20% B:2.03%)
15.22% (G:4.29% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.983...+0.990) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout111/6 5/4eq: +0.892 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:		82.62% (G:24.24% B:1.87%)
17.38% (G:2.69% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.889...+0.895) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95623456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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