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Novi Lecture Help

Posted By: Keene
Date: Thursday, 29 June 2017, at 4:53 p.m.

In Response To: Novi Lecture Help (Phil Simborg)

I use "things", a variant on PRAT and Woolsey. The premise of things is that I will look at all the things that need to happen for a turnaround, and think of them loosely in terms of likelihood. So, for example:

When being doubled- Thing 1: need to enter before the board is closed Thing 2: need to be able to escape or hit back

for #1, thats an easy calculation, how likely am I to enter the board? I know this. for #2, after entry how easy is it to escape? how likely is a hit/norehit sequence?

when doing the doubling- Thing 1: what needs to happen for my attack to fail? Thing 2: what does opp need to do in order to save himself here?

And so on. However the most important rule I have on cube based decisions, which I use as a mantra at all times (and I will preach this to anyone I am helping out): If you can tolerate the risk, then the take pass decision is ALWAYS based on the race.

Of course, there are always variables associated with measuring things, and risk tolerance - score, gammon rates, reward etc. I like to think that I can make some pretty accurate assessments using my own methodology, and I think thats fairly represented in my playing PR. Of course, I am not playing a 2, so I could undoubtedly improve, and naturally enough one way to do that is to formalize into a formulaic structure how I make cube decisions, however while I do not have the time in my life to do that right now, I am happy with my methods, and they serve me very well.

Another valuable point worth mentioning here is that I already play at a high level (yes, I'm great lol), and my decision criteria are suited to me, and perhaps only adaptable to less capable players. They are less likely to be able to assess risk as well, or to evaluate likelihood of roll sequences as effectively.

I think the key point to mention here is that everyone has their own methods, and none are perfect. No disrespect to John (obviously), but I am of the opinion that his rule here is very helpful, but doesn't paint an entire picture.

Keene

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