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Midgame doubles #2 - The Zone

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 1 July 2017, at 10:56 p.m.

In Response To: Midgame doubles #2 - ROLLOUT & VARIANT (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBB-B-B--BcC-a-c-cc---B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	4/2*(2) 3/1*(2)	eq: +0,208
	Player: Opponent: 52,35% (G:29,32% B:0,88%) 47,65% (G:16,18% B:1,20%) Conf.: ± 0,017 (+0,192...+0,225) - [100,0%] Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 4/2*(2)	eq: +0,171 (-0,037)
	Player: Opponent: 52,61% (G:19,76% B:1,01%) 47,39% (G:12,74% B:0,59%) Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,159...+0,183) - [0,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 3/1*(2)	eq: +0,140 (-0,069)
	Player: Opponent: 52,12% (G:19,92% B:0,66%) 47,88% (G:12,86% B:0,57%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (+0,126...+0,153) - [0,0%] Duration: 9 minutes 50 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 13/9	eq: +0,137 (-0,071)
	Player: Opponent: 52,25% (G:18,50% B:0,82%) 47,75% (G:12,40% B:0,59%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (+0,123...+0,151) - [0,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 35 seconds
5.	Rollout1	11/7(2)	eq: +0,105 (-0,104)
	Player: Opponent: 52,19% (G:20,20% B:0,94%) 47,81% (G:16,01% B:0,93%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (+0,090...+0,119) - [0,0%] Duration: 8 minutes 42 seconds
6.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 11/9(2)	eq: +0,089 (-0,119)
	Player: Opponent: 51,34% (G:16,19% B:0,69%) 48,66% (G:12,23% B:0,51%) Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,077...+0,102) - [0,0%] Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Karol's original position is shown above.

According to Karol's (1k) rollouts, lifting White's blot (from 10/8) changes the blitz play from +.037 to –.064 (in his second rollout, not shown here).

Another big factor is the number of checkers in Blue's "zone." If you remove one (adjusting Blue by merely 11/13), then even with White's hanging 10pt blot, Blue's blitz play is a borderline blunder (as are semi-blitz plays). See rollout below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 153 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBB-B-B--AcD-a-c-cc---B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 11/13)

1.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 13/11(2)	eq: +0.159
	Player: Opponent: 52.94% (G:17.32% B:0.75%) 47.06% (G:12.07% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.145...+0.173) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	4/2*(2) 3/1*(2)	eq: +0.104 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 50.14% (G:26.16% B:0.69%) 49.86% (G:16.40% B:1.11%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.088...+0.119) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 43 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/22 13/11 4/2*(2)	eq: +0.093 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 51.14% (G:19.36% B:1.18%) 48.86% (G:14.76% B:0.75%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.078...+0.109) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/22 13/11 3/1*(2)	eq: +0.089 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 51.39% (G:19.65% B:0.66%) 48.61% (G:14.90% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.073...+0.104) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Below, White's blot is lifted (10/8) as in Karol's blitz-is-blunder variant, except that if Blue is given another checker in the zone, even one that is seemingly redundant (13/11), the full blitz play regains its dominant status.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 149 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBB-B-B--CcB---d-cc---B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (Compared to Karol's 10/8 variant, Blue is adjusted by 13/11)

1.	Rollout1	4/2*(2) 3/1*(2)	eq: +0.219
	Player: Opponent: 52.25% (G:29.33% B:0.32%) 47.75% (G:15.99% B:1.11%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.205...+0.234) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/7(2)	eq: +0.183 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 54.25% (G:20.60% B:0.88%) 45.75% (G:14.76% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.168...+0.198) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 4/2*(2)	eq: +0.180 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 53.23% (G:19.38% B:0.75%) 46.77% (G:12.34% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.166...+0.194) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 3/1*(2)	eq: +0.163 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 52.75% (G:20.13% B:0.45%) 47.25% (G:12.25% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.147...+0.179) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/22(2) 11/9(2)	eq: +0.148 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 52.89% (G:16.80% B:0.66%) 47.11% (G:11.51% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.134...+0.162) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Midgame doubles #2
  Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 29 June 2017, at 7:48 p.m.
  • Midgame doubles #2
    neilkaz -- Friday, 30 June 2017, at 2:00 a.m.
  • Midgame doubles #2
    Michael -- Friday, 30 June 2017, at 7:23 p.m.
    • Midgame doubles #2
      hominid -- Friday, 30 June 2017, at 8:07 p.m.
  • Midgame doubles #2 - ROLLOUT & VARIANT
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 1 July 2017, at 9:07 p.m.
    • Midgame doubles #2 - The Zone
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 1 July 2017, at 10:56 p.m.