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EPC for stack+stragglers, continued

Posted By: Michael
Date: Sunday, 2 July 2017, at 3:22 p.m.

In Response To: EPC for stack+stragglers, continued (Karol Szczerek)

I haven't studied the issue, and I really appreciate your effort. So whatever I 'll say below is just my first observation, and I could be wrong. Well, what's EPC on the first place? It's the average number of rolls to complete the bearoff isn't it? So when in your first example the EPC was 42.8 Vs 38.8 this means the average number of rolls left is 42.8/8.167=5.24 Vs 4.75 However there are no 5.24 rolls! There are either 5 or 6. The result should rather be translated as: 76% 5 rolls +24% 6 rolls and 25% 4 Rolls + 75% 5 rolls. Therefore imo it's this 75% chance for both sides (where the game would end up to 5 rolls for each) that boosts the winning chances. (a 5 rolls game is 73-27% GWC isn't it?)

In a nutshell i don't think we can estimate GWC by calculating the percentage difference between EPC1 and EPC2

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