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High backgame - hit or not? - ROLLOUT & VARIANTS

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 8 July 2017, at 11:20 a.m.

In Response To: High backgame - hit or not? (Karol Szczerek)

The hit is correct. The timing isn't good for us, and the hit is relatively safe. Even though we leave 4 blots, White's return hits leave plenty of returns for us. It seems like a good opportunity to try to go forward and disconnect White.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 128 Unlimited Game pip: 176 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----CB-BbAAaBa--cbdbBB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	21/12*	eq: -0,631
	Player: Opponent: 36,14% (G:7,90% B:0,35%) 63,86% (G:23,00% B:1,27%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,640...-0,623) - [100,0%] Duration: 57 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/6 8/4	eq: -0,695 (-0,064)
	Player: Opponent: 34,10% (G:5,41% B:0,19%) 65,90% (G:17,78% B:0,58%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,703...-0,688) - [0,0%] Duration: 51 minutes 26 seconds
3.	Rollout2	11/7 8/3	eq: -0,714 (-0,082)
	Player: Opponent: 33,72% (G:5,25% B:0,19%) 66,28% (G:17,81% B:0,60%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,728...-0,699) - [0,0%] Duration: 15 minutes 18 seconds
4.	Rollout2	11/6 10/6	eq: -0,724 (-0,092)
	Player: Opponent: 32,61% (G:5,09% B:0,18%) 67,39% (G:15,41% B:0,45%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,736...-0,711) - [0,0%] Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds
5.	Rollout2	8/4 8/3	eq: -0,732 (-0,101)
	Player: Opponent: 34,53% (G:5,31% B:0,18%) 65,47% (G:20,78% B:0,83%) Conf.: ± 0,016 (-0,748...-0,717) - [0,0%] Duration: 14 minutes 11 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Improve our timing by shifting a spare from the 5pt to the midpoint, and the hit is already worse.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 128 Unlimited Game pip: 184 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BB-BbAAaCa--cbdbBB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: -0,564
	Player: Opponent: 37,99% (G:6,13% B:0,22%) 62,01% (G:19,54% B:0,53%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,572...-0,556) - [98,7%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8 11/7	eq: -0,577 (-0,013)
	Player: Opponent: 37,40% (G:5,96% B:0,21%) 62,60% (G:18,48% B:0,51%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,584...-0,569) - [1,3%] Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.	Rollout1	21/12*	eq: -0,595 (-0,031)
	Player: Opponent: 36,89% (G:7,33% B:0,31%) 63,11% (G:21,57% B:1,06%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,604...-0,587) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• High backgame - hit or not?
  Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 6 July 2017, at 7:49 p.m.
  • High backgame - hit or not?
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 6 July 2017, at 9:01 p.m.
    • High backgame - hit or not?
      neilkaz -- Friday, 7 July 2017, at 1:24 a.m.
  • High backgame - hit or not? - ROLLOUT & VARIANTS
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 8 July 2017, at 11:20 a.m.