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struggling to understand the rollout results

Posted By: scotty
Date: Monday, 10 July 2017, at 1:36 a.m.

In Response To: Basic early game goof safe vs bold play (Casper Van der Tak)

you really nailed it, Casper! My feeling was that offering up two shots would provoke a cube from white, and increase blue's gammon losses substantially. However, blue has less gammon losses after the bold play than after playing "safe" with 24/22, 13/8, which was a huge surprise for me. I can easily see that the safe play really hurts blue's chances for early development.

I have encountered positions many times before, where there is one surprising play that is much better than all the others, and the others are all blunders > .100. I always seem to miss the correct play in those situations. Can you offer any advice for recognizing positions of that class?

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