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Post Crawford Cube Action ROLLOUT

Posted By: JohnK
Date: Tuesday, 11 July 2017, at 12:55 p.m.

In Response To: Post Crawford Cube Action (Casper Van der Tak)

Maybe I didn't phrase this right since I meant it as a take/pass problem - I thought the double was clear. OTB I was white and had a tough time estimating the win/gammon ratio but finally decided it was more than 18/32 so I passed. I was way off and passing was a blunder. At 3-away PC it is a pass since there are more G's than wins.

		White is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 157 11 point match pip: 137 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB--B-----fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:6:10:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.90% (G:36.32% B:0.25%)	68.15% (G:36.44% B:0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.10% (G:5.79% B:0.33%)	31.85% (G:5.74% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.390	+0.845
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.816 (-0.028)	±0.006 (+0.811..+0.822)
Double/Take:	+0.845	±0.006 (+0.838..+0.851)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.155)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 157 11 point match pip: 137 score: 8 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB--B-----fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:8:10:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.63% (G:34.79% B:0.19%)	68.29% (G:35.71% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.37% (G:5.71% B:0.37%)	31.71% (G:5.61% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.373	+1.131
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.920 (-0.080)	±0.006 (+0.914..+0.925)
Double/Take:	+1.131 (+0.131)	±0.009 (+1.122..+1.140)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Post Crawford Cube Action
  JohnK -- Saturday, 8 July 2017, at 8:00 p.m.
  • why so prevalent?
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 10:45 a.m.
  • Post Crawford Cube Action
    Bill Finneran -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 4:37 p.m.
  • Post Crawford Cube Action
    Florin Popa -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 8:15 p.m.
    • Post Crawford Cube Action
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 9:07 p.m.
      • Post Crawford Cube Action
        Florin Popa -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 10:32 p.m.
        • Post Crawford Cube Action
          Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 8:02 a.m.
          • Post Crawford Cube Action
            Florin Popa -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 12:33 p.m.
            • Post Crawford Cube Action
              Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 12:53 p.m.
              • Post Crawford Cube Action ROLLOUT
                JohnK -- Tuesday, 11 July 2017, at 12:55 p.m.