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The double -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 13 July 2017, at 6:44 p.m.

In Response To: The double (Sebastiaan Kuijs)





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 150
11 point match
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BB-BBBcAa--bC---c-d--b--A:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:11:10

Original position


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.51% (G:26.39% B:0.19%) 67.61% (G:26.13% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.49% (G:5.02% B:0.18%) 32.39% (G:5.00% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.560 +1.184
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.809 (-0.191)±0.006 (+0.803..+0.816)
Double/Take:+1.060 (+0.060)±0.008 (+1.052..+1.067)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 27 minutes 57 seconds

This thread appears to have been abandoned. (When nobody responds, I don't blame the originator for not bothering to post a rollout.)

The original cube-action position, where Blue trails –5–11, is rolled out above.

Contrasted to the original position, the variants below help measure the superiority of the 4pt over the 3pt.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 152
11 point match
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BB-BBBcAa--bC---c-d-b---A:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:11:10

Variant 1 (White owns her 4pt instead of 3pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.30% (G:25.91% B:0.18%) 65.22% (G:26.21% B:0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.70% (G:5.55% B:0.21%) 34.78% (G:5.55% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.504 +1.076
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.713 (-0.230)±0.007 (+0.706..+0.720)
Double/Take:+0.943±0.008 (+0.935..+0.951)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.057)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 38 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 150
11 point match
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBB-BBcAa--bC---c-d--b--A:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:11:10

Variant 2 (Blue owns his 3pt instead of 4pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.59% (G:25.12% B:0.17%) 66.69% (G:24.93% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.41% (G:5.41% B:0.17%) 33.31% (G:5.33% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities +0.523 +1.111
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.767 (-0.219)±0.006 (+0.760..+0.773)
Double/Take:+0.986±0.008 (+0.978..+0.994)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.014)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51521755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 38 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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