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Too many options, 32 and 43 -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 18 July 2017, at 12:02 a.m.

In Response To: Same position, roll of 43 (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 145 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaBE-D---bB---cbe---AA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Original roll of 32

1.	Rollout1	6/4* 6/3*	eq: +0.441
	Player: Opponent: 59.04% (G:23.85% B:1.89%) 40.96% (G:11.86% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.425...+0.456) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 32 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/4* 4/1*	eq: +0.379 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 57.27% (G:22.49% B:0.96%) 42.73% (G:10.97% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.362...+0.397) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 49 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/21 23/21	eq: +0.352 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 58.60% (G:15.25% B:0.52%) 41.40% (G:8.55% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.337...+0.367) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds
4.	Rollout1	6/3* 3/1*	eq: +0.342 (-0.099)
	Player: Opponent: 56.89% (G:21.69% B:0.95%) 43.11% (G:11.14% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.326...+0.358) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 35470494 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

I was waiting for Sebastiaan to post a rollout for his position, but it has been a week, and I involved myself in the thread, so I've rolled it out for him. See above.

I proposed the same board position but with a roll of 43. Hitting on the 4pt and 3pt with K (Kill) gives a better offensive distribution (than with 32), but the superiority of the 20pt anchor over the 21pt anchor is a much bigger factor, swinging the result. See below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 145 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaBE-D---bB---cbe---AA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Roll of 43 (instead of 32)

1.	Rollout1	24/20 23/20	eq: +0.454
	Player: Opponent: 61.32% (G:15.18% B:0.51%) 38.68% (G:6.89% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.448...+0.461) - [99.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4* 6/3*	eq: +0.442 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 59.04% (G:25.06% B:2.01%) 40.96% (G:11.60% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.433...+0.450) - [1.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 00 second
3.	Rollout2	8/4* 4/1*	eq: +0.362 (-0.092)
	Player: Opponent: 56.79% (G:22.86% B:1.00%) 43.21% (G:11.27% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.344...+0.380) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 30 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Casper inquired about DMP (double match point). According to my rollouts (not shown), 32K beats @ by .012, and 43@ beats K by .049.

For both 32 and 43, @ (anchor) is better at gammon save, and K is better at gammon go. With a roll of 21 at all four scores, K crushes @.

[I'll let Bob Koca be the one to follow up on his suggested rolls of -61 and -51, if he wishes to do so.]

Finally, I am reminded of the set of third-roll positions in which Blue has opened with 51S and White has replied with 43U, as diagrammed below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aaE-D---eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
51S-43U, -43 or -32 or -21

For money and most scores, Blue should play 43@, 32@ and 21K. At gammon go, he should play 43K and 32K, though in theory he should have opened with 51$ at that score.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Too many options
  Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 8:31 a.m.
  • Too many options
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 8:58 a.m.
    • Too many options
      garyo -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 12:32 p.m.
    • Too many options
      Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 2:01 p.m.
    • Too many options
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 11 July 2017, at 2:59 p.m.
  • Too many options
    scotty -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 4:44 p.m.
  • Same position, roll of 43
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 4:57 p.m.
    • Same position, roll of 43
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 5:33 p.m.
      • Same position, roll of 43
        Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 6:32 p.m.
      • Same position, roll of 43
        scotty -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 6:32 p.m.
        • Same position, roll of 43
          Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 7:02 p.m.
          • Same position, roll of 43
            TarHeelFan -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 7:14 p.m.
            • Same position, roll of 43
              Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 7:51 p.m.
    • Same position, roll of 43
      Keene -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 8:16 p.m.
      • Same position, roll of 43
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 12 July 2017, at 3:45 a.m.
        • Same position, roll of 43
          Keene -- Wednesday, 12 July 2017, at 7:01 p.m.
    • Too many options, 32 and 43 -- ROLLOUTS
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 18 July 2017, at 12:02 a.m.
      • Too many options, 32 and 43 -- ROLLOUTS
        Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 18 July 2017, at 2:02 p.m.
  • Too many options
    Keene -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 8:18 p.m.
  • Too many options
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 11 July 2017, at 2:06 p.m.
  • Same position, roll of 51 or 61
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 12 July 2017, at 3:59 a.m.