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Another hit-or-point problem -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 26 July 2017, at 10:16 p.m.

In Response To: Another hit-or-point problem (Jack Edelson)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 154 1 point match pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaBBBAC-----cBa-ab-bbbA-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:1:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	22/16* 16/14*	eq: +0.305
	Player: Opponent: 65.26% (G:49.39% B:17.21%) 34.74% (G:7.45% B:1.22%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.302...+0.309) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.279 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 63.96% (G:49.48% B:10.52%) 36.04% (G:7.83% B:1.13%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.276...+0.282) - [0.0%] Duration: 48 minutes 29 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/16*	eq: +0.222 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 61.09% (G:44.79% B:13.79%) 38.91% (G:10.60% B:1.89%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.215...+0.228) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/16* 13/11	eq: +0.192 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 59.59% (G:44.71% B:15.08%) 40.41% (G:11.15% B:3.22%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.185...+0.198) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 53 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 35470494 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 35470494 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

It appears that (until now) a rollout was never posted for the above position.

There are two variants below. In the second of these variants, a third play floats to the top of the rollout.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 1 point match pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaBBBAC-----cBa-ab-bb-AbB-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 1 (White owns her 2pt instead of 4pt)

1.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.472
	Player: Opponent: 73.61% (G:56.32% B:13.33%) 26.39% (G:5.87% B:1.02%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.469...+0.475) - [100.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16* 16/14*	eq: +0.455 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 72.75% (G:54.32% B:19.27%) 27.25% (G:5.54% B:0.96%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.452...+0.458) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 19 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/16*	eq: +0.399 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 69.97% (G:50.08% B:15.87%) 30.03% (G:7.74% B:1.67%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.393...+0.405) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 56 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/16* 13/11	eq: +0.375 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 68.76% (G:50.08% B:16.87%) 31.24% (G:9.27% B:2.65%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.369...+0.381) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 1 point match pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaBBBAC-----cBa-a-bbbbA-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 2 (White owns her 7pt instead of 8pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/16*	eq: +0.153
	Player: Opponent: 57.65% (G:41.80% B:12.21%) 42.35% (G:10.80% B:1.79%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.150...+0.156) - [82.4%] Duration: 17 minutes 20 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16* 16/14*	eq: +0.151 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 57.54% (G:43.12% B:15.00%) 42.46% (G:9.32% B:1.33%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.147...+0.154) - [17.6%] Duration: 17 minutes 27 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/5	eq: +0.097 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 54.86% (G:41.09% B:8.65%) 45.14% (G:10.17% B:1.32%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.091...+0.104) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/16* 13/11	eq: +0.024 (-0.129)
	Player: Opponent: 51.21% (G:37.30% B:10.84%) 48.79% (G:13.97% B:3.58%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.017...+0.031) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 02 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Another hit-or-point problem
  Jack Edelson -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 5:30 p.m.
  • Another hit-or-point problem
    Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 8:00 p.m.
    • Another hit-or-point problem
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 9:09 p.m.
  • Another hit-or-point problem
    scotty -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 4:38 p.m.
    • Another hit-or-point problem
      Keene -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 8:24 p.m.
  • Another hit-or-point problem -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 26 July 2017, at 10:16 p.m.